In summary
Because two candidates finished in an exact tie for second place, three Democrats will advance to the November election in the 16th Congressional District. It’s the first competitive three-way runoff since California adopted the top two system in 2012.
Whoever didn’t vote in a U.S. House primary in Silicon Valley may have helped make history.
Tied for second place in the March 5 primary with exactly 30,249 votes each, Assemblymember Evan Low and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian are both advancing to the November general election, joining top vote-getter Sam Liccardo, former mayor of San Jose, according to results certified this afternoon by election officials in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties.
The stage is set for a competitive three-way November runoff — a first since California adopted its top two primary starting in 2012. All three are Democrats.
Low thanked his supporters in a statement this afternoon after the results were certified. “This historically close race shows that every vote really counts,” he said. “I look forward to continuing to share my vision for the future with every voter in the coming months.”
It was the only contest among the state’s 52 congressional districts still undecided into this week. The top two law says that if there’s a tie for second place, both candidates advance. But that provision was rarely looked at until Low and Simitian kept jockeying for second with every vote count.
There was a three-way state Assembly race in November 2016, but two of the candidates were write-ins who tied in the primary with 32 votes each and stood no chance in the general, said Rob Pyers, research director of the California Target Book, the nonpartisan group that tracks election data.
“It’s basically as rare as a four-leaf clover or getting a peanut with three nuts in it,” Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo said.
It also means that California could have its first member of Congress elected without a clear majority in a long time, given how close the primary was among the three frontrunners, he added. Liccardo finished with 21% of the vote, while Low and Simitian each had about 17%.
What could change that dynamic, however, is if one of the candidates requests a recount. California does not have automatic recounts; instead, any registered voter can request one, but must pay for it themselves. In Santa Clara County alone, a recount is estimated to cost $320,000, the San Jose Spotlight reported.
But neither Low or Simitian have the incentive to do it, Trujillo said. “I think both are just gonna be like, ‘Look, let’s just we’re in the runoff. Let’s move forward.’”
For Liccardo, who now has an additional opponent to worry about, the tie complicates the race, strategists say.
“It makes the calculus of where or who to hit … a lot harder, because there’s no guarantee those votes come back to you,” said Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta.
It could also make it harder for Liccardo to consolidate votes, Trujillo said.
“When you’re in the runoff, your goal is to consolidate the voters that didn’t go with you or your opponent,” he said. “Having a third place candidate still there, with a significant amount of the vote, is annoying.”
Liccardo spokesperson Orrin Evans did not directly address the tie when asked for comment today.
“We welcome the opportunity to continue to talk to voters about the issues facing our communities, including the high cost of living, utility rates and housing and Sam’s long record of fighting on behalf of residents,” he said in a statement.
Simitian’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The three candidates will seek support from Democratic voters who didn’t participate in the primary or backed others, plus Republican voters and those not affiliated with a major party, strategists say.
All three Democrats are current or former elected officials with similar stances on issues, so they will try to “get out ahead and try to shine brighter” to distinguish themselves from others, Acosta said.
“All these campaigns have to be as efficient as possible to figure out who they go spend time talking to,” he said.
And the race will only get more expensive. It is already one of the most expensive House races in California, with candidates spending a collective $5.3 million, according to data analyzed by OpenSecrets. The safe Democratic district, represented by Rep. Anna Eshoo who is retiring from Congress, is one of the wealthiest in California and in the country.