How did Gaza war influence CA primary?

The ongoing Gaza war and worsening humanitarian crisis have led to protests and put politicians on the spot in California and elsewhere. And as the calls for a ceasefire have grown louder, voters have been trying to find ways to make their voices heard.

In states including Michigan, Hawaii and Minnesota, Democrats voted “uncommitted” to protest President Biden’s Gaza war policy.

And while Californians who support a Gaza ceasefire did not have that option in the presidential primary, CalMatters Capitol reporter Sameea Kamal and data reporter Jeremia Kimelman looked at the vote counts so far and evidence of protest votes emerging in some pockets of the state. 

In Los Angeles County, about 13% of Democrats didn’t vote for Biden. In Sacramento and San Bernardino counties, the total was more than 11%. Some voters were told to leave the presidential race blank, while others were encouraged to vote for Marianne Williamson, who dropped out in February, or Peace and Freedom party candidate Cornel West, both of whom support a ceasefire. 

In 39 counties where the numbers were available, at least 160,000 voters in the Democratic presidential primary left the race blank, and another 100,000 voted for Williamson or a write-in candidate.

• Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California: “It’s always easier to vote for no one than it is to vote for somebody as a protest.”

According to some community organizers, efforts in California to rally a notable share of protest votes was difficult for a number of reasons. In addition to California’s huge size, the earlier March primary date made it harder for organizers to get the message out. Arab Americans also make up a smaller portion of the state’s total population than in Michigan.

Despite the uphill battle organizers face in rallying for more support, political advocacy around Gaza continues, especially for Californinas who have family there.

• Basim Elkarra, executive director of the Council on American Islamic Relations’ Sacramento and Central Valley chapter: “You feel this guilt that, you know, my taxpayer dollars and U.S. doctrine is killing my people. It’s just a very, very difficult situation…. It’s like a nightmare that’s not ending.”

To learn more on the protest vote, read Sameea’s story. And catch up on how the Gaza debate has impacted California politics with CalMatters stories on what happened on the first day of the legislative session and at the state Democratic Party convention.

There’s more news from California’s primary: As it did in 2022, California could again help decide which party controls the U.S. House. That’s because even though Democrats dominate the congressional delegation, there are still a handful of toss-up districts.

A key one will again be the 22nd District in the Central Valley that the AP declared Wednesday will be a rematch between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas. Democrats had feared that they would be frozen out of the November race, if Republican Chris Mathys had grabbed the second slot from the top-two primary.

In the latest update by the Cook Political Report, just before the primary, the 22nd was one of four Republican-held districts rated as toss-ups. No seats now held by Democrats are among the 10 toss-ups nationally. 

The 20th District is safe Republican territory, but there was still drama in the race to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Assemblymember Vince Fong had to go to court against Secretary of State Shirley Weber to get on the primary ballot, but he has won one of the two spots for November. And Wednesday, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux was declared the winner of the second spot, elbowing aside Democrat Marisa Wood.

And don’t forget: On Tuesday, there’s a special election to fill the remainder of McCarthy’s term and Fong, Boudreaux and Wood are running in that as well. Unlike the top-two primary, a candidate could win outright next week, if they get a clear majority. Otherwise, there’s a May 21 runoff. 

Some other congressional results remain too close to call, more than a week after primary day on March 5. Keep track of some key ones with CalMatters’ Voter Guide page on the U.S. House. 

Now, California’s delegation includes 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans. And the GOP holds an overall majority of a mere six seats in the House. That will tighten by one more on March 22, when GOP Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado steps down.

In other election news: A power couple’s strategy for both to land legislative seats failed. Wednesday, the AP declared that Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua, a Stockton Democrat, didn’t make the top two in state Senate District 5 and that Edith Villapudua, who switched from that race to seek her husband’s seat, finished third in Assembly District 13.

The California Chamber of Commerce announced Wednesday it opposes the new effort to recall Gov. Newsom. Some of the same conservative activists behind the failed 2021 recall launched another try last month.

California often embraces its perception as a “climate policy leader,” but a new report finds that the state is far behind its goals to reduce greenhouse gases.

As CalMatters climate reporter Alejandro Lazo explains, the analysis by Beacon Economics and the environmental nonprofit Next 10 concludes that the state must triple its rate of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other climate-warming gases over the next six years if it wants to hit its requirement to reduce greenhouse gases to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. 

That would require cutting emissions 4.4% every year starting in 2022 — a pace that California has only come close to hitting twice over the last two decades. That was in 2009 and 2020, during major recessions. Otherwise, from 2016 through 2021 the average reduction has been just 1.6% a year.

The report comes at a time when California has its eyes on an even more ambitious climate goal, which seeks to cut emissions by 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve full carbon neutrality by 2045. In the face of proposed budget cuts to climate programs, various institutions, such as the California public university system, continue to work toward decarbonization.

But the latest report joins a handful of earlier studies from the Legislative Analyst’s Office and a state advisory committee that cast doubt on California meeting its 2030 goals. Nevertheless, a spokesperson for the state’s Air Resources Board said in an emailed statement that California “will achieve the state’s climate targets.”

Learn more about California’s climate change mandate in Alejandro’s story.