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National Election Prediction Thread

Original post made by PK, Menlo Park, on Nov 5, 2012

No rhetoric, no noise. Just your prediction for electoral vote count, Senate +/-, and House pick ups.

First prize? Why, bragging rights, of course!

Mine? Not too far off the consensus, but I'll take a stab at some outside guesses also.


Obama 308 votes (possibly up to 332, if everything breaks his way)

Senate: Dems pick up 1 seat, though possibly 2 (shocking considering the conventional wisdom 6 months ago)

House: Dems pick up 5-10, so , I'll choose 8, GOP still has comfortable majority. Far less than the Dems had hoped to pick up.

Comments (22)

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Posted by Gary
a resident of Downtown North
on Nov 5, 2012 at 5:36 pm

Obama 300, maybe down to 290

Senate: even (assume Maine Angus King counts as Democrat)

House: team red loses 15 seats

Very sad day for Team Red

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Posted by Ken
a resident of Midtown
on Nov 5, 2012 at 5:40 pm

Romney by a slight margin in the electoral college. Democrats hold the Senate. The GOP holds the house.

Bottem line: Back to stalemate.

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Posted by Sharon
a resident of Midtown
on Nov 5, 2012 at 6:17 pm

Obama wins electoral with 290 but loses popular vote because all the democrats who can't vote due to power loss and Sandy damage - right freaks out about popular vote electoral loss.

Open race in 2016 - Jeb Bush vs Hillary

Democrats maintain senate despite defending 26 seats - a record.

Republicans maintain House, lower margin. Fire Beonher, Cantor is Leader..

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Posted by landslide Obama
a resident of East Palo Alto
on Nov 5, 2012 at 7:11 pm

Obama gets 300 electoral votes, ANOTHER OBAMA LANDSLIDE!

Keeps senate, picks up 20 house seats.

Causes repug mini civil war, with factions blaming Chris Christie, voter fraud, hurricane Sandy and the so called liberal media and liberal polls.

All good.

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Posted by sameold
a resident of College Terrace
on Nov 5, 2012 at 7:46 pm

At the race.. No surprise. O wins handily by more than 30 E votes and also edge over the P votes. However there still no light at the end of the tunnel.

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Posted by Outside Observer
a resident of another community
on Nov 5, 2012 at 9:20 pm

The rich will get richer. Crime, poverty and national debt will increase. The middle class standard of living will decrease under an increased tax burden.

This will happen no matter who wins.

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Posted by Jess W.
a resident of College Terrace
on Nov 5, 2012 at 9:28 pm

Obama 290 Rromney 248 won't be decided until really late

Senate stays same, house almost same.

America should be ashamed that we force citizens to take hours in line just to vote.


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Posted by voting is basic
a resident of Barron Park
on Nov 5, 2012 at 9:46 pm

It is shameful we can't accurately and efficiently allow all americans the abiliypty to vote. Seeing lines in Ohio and Florida like that make us look like a 3rd world country. Election preparation should be nonpartisan.

Prediction - we won't know until Wednesday at the earliest..

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Posted by Perspective
a resident of Greater Miranda
on Nov 6, 2012 at 5:06 am

My prediction:
Electoral: Romney 288, 52% of popular vote.

House: Stays in control of Rebubs, picks up 2 seats Repub for 244 House Repubs.

Senate: Stays in control of Reid Dems, picks up 1 Repubs for 48 Repubs in Senate.

End game?: Reid still blocks all legislation coming out of House. Deadlock for 2 more years until the next Senate race, Or do the Dems wake up and get with the program?

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Posted by Resident
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Nov 6, 2012 at 8:23 am

My prediction, no specifics but another non conclusive election similar to 2000 with arguments taking weeks to settle.

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Posted by Yay for partisanship
a resident of College Terrace
on Nov 6, 2012 at 8:26 am

Here's a question: do any Romney supporters predict an Obama victory? Any Obama supporters predict a Romney win?

It seems like this isn't really a "prediction" thread, but rather a "wish" thread.

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Posted by Walter Akins
a resident of Atherton
on Nov 6, 2012 at 8:54 am

"Yay for partisanship" -- Seems the predictions for Obama are at least based in reality. Look at any of the composite site polls. See 538, or Real Clear. Even Rasmussen came into line at the end, no longer claiming a Romney 3-6 point lead, their last poll was a single point so they can maintain credibility in the future. One notes you asked a reasonable question, if the predictions you mock are correct, will you return?

One also notes you made no prediction.

My predictions are the 538/RCP avg: Obama 313/303 - call it 308 (I know it doesn't work like that!) Senate even, counting Angus King the dem/Ind in Maine, 53-47, a huge loss for the GOP given the map they thought they had with 27 democratic senators up for reelection and playing defense.

House = pick 'em (ie.. even, because I had to pick something!)

First results: Harts in NH has Obama destroying Romney: "Hart's Location election results @BarackObama 23, @MittRomney 9, @GovGaryJohnson 2 #nhpolitics" Dixville was 5-5.

Obama was pulling away from Romney before Sandy, just got worse afterwards. Romney ran for president for 7 years and never closed the deal.

Two questions for after the election: Where were the good GOP candidates this cycle? And why pick Ryan when he couldn't even carry his own state? Rubio or Portman could have helped much, much more in that regard. Now Ryan's been exposed as a liar and useless with independents. He hasn't given a single press conference to the national media in over a month, if at all.

Good thread, PK. Thanks for letting me play along!

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Posted by money talks
a resident of Greendell/Walnut Grove
on Nov 6, 2012 at 10:58 am

Obama 303, Rmoney 235

Romney always knew it was a shell game, that's why he quit taking questions from reporters since September.

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Posted by Team Blue
a resident of Atherton
on Nov 6, 2012 at 4:22 pm

Romney's staff now admits their internals showed them losing Ohio, that's why Romney went to PA to finish the race. Wierd. No way he wins in PA either.

Must stink to be looking at losing cards when playing the biggest hand of your life.

CNN also reports: "CNN: if O wins, the Empire State Building turns blue; if R wins, it turns red."

As they say: A real breakthru for those who get their news from buildings.

Have fun tonight, kiddies!

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Posted by the coming GOP civil war
a resident of Nixon School
on Nov 6, 2012 at 8:27 pm

"Yay for partisanship"

Seems one side was correct, the other, not so much.

Your thoughts?

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Posted by resident
a resident of Community Center
on Nov 6, 2012 at 8:46 pm

Presidential election looks like a rout. Obama could get well over 300 electoral votes. Mandate time.

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Posted by Ken
a resident of Midtown
on Nov 6, 2012 at 9:11 pm

> Mandate time.

No,no...mandate was when Reagan clobbered Carter. This vote is no where near a mandate. Most counties in America voted for Romney. Not even close to a mandate.

The GOP still controls the house, where spending bills originate. Big government is dead. Time to get used to it.

More of the same.

The Democrats need to reconsider. The next four years will be abysmal to people of color. 8% unemployment (more realistically 11%, considering the dropouts). Do Latinos want to continue to be devastated?

No more bully on N. American energy. No more bully on American jobs. Just redistrbuionist rhetoric.

Latinos have bought a pig in the poke. Does 15% (real) unemployemnt sound better to them?

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Posted by why do they hate America?
a resident of Midtown
on Nov 6, 2012 at 9:48 pm

” Ken” doesn't waste any time in wishing for doom and gloom for America. Instead of working to help all people in the country, they are being eaten up by bitterness and hated. They are still upset the Obama killed bin laden.

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Posted by That User Name is already
a resident of another community
on Nov 7, 2012 at 3:35 pm

That User Name is already is a registered user.

332-206, + 2 senate, + 7 house seats

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Who had 332?

PK had REALLY good guesses:

"Obama 308 votes (possibly up to 332, if everything breaks his way) Senate: Dems pick up 1 seat, though possibly 2, House: Dems pick up 5-10, so , I'll choose 8"

The WORST? any Romney fan, like Perspective:

"Electoral: Romney 288, 52% of popular vote. (WRONG & WRONG) House: ...Rebubs, picks up 2 seats Repub for 244 House Repubs. (WRONG) Senate: picks up 1 Repubs for 48 Repubs in Senate." (WRONG)

Rose or RED tinted glasses keep things murky, not pink. Try again in four years.

Wish I had seen the thread before hand. Would have guessed 300 EV for Obama, flat senate, 15 seats in House. Oh well.

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Posted by Perspective
a resident of Midtown
on Nov 8, 2012 at 6:31 am

Perspective is a registered user.

Yup, I had too much confidence in the American people to understand the future they were voting for. So, I was wrong. I finally admit it, I have family and friends who for years have been telling me I have too much confidence in the American electorate intelligence and character..I finally admit they are right.

Well, here we are. Obamacare here to stay. No budgets for 4 more years. Another 6 trillion in debt. No fixes for a collapsing Medicare and Social Security. No border fixes. More enemies in the world eyeing us with glee. And, I guess this really IS the new normal in our economy. We are officially Europe.

Obama and the Dems won, and even if it was by only a 2% margin popular vote, they won, and all of us will lose as a result.


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Posted by That User Name is already
a resident of another community
on Nov 8, 2012 at 10:06 am

That User Name is already is a registered user.

Oh, Perspective, so bitter, now you're blaming Americans for not being as "smart" as you? Re-read your comments and factless rhetoric in a a week and you'll realize how bad they look.

Americans weren't the fools who listened to the right wing echo chamber tell themselves that far right "conservative" ideas were the ticket to a surefire landslide. Americans listened and reasoned -- they reasoned that a guy running for president who hid his taxes and hid money in secret offshore accounts wasn't a real American. They reasoned that a candidate who couldn't do simple math does not make a leader. They reasoned that someone wrong on saving GM and not wanting to move mountains to get Bin Ladin was a a foolish choice. Americans saw a flawed candidate. About the only rightie that finally got it before it was too late was Chris Christie.

Most of all, Americans turned off the Fox! You should try it. The only reasons your predictions were SO BAD was because you refused to look at sane, sober analysis like Nate Silver's 538 blog or Real Clear Politics. Nate had Obama at a 70-90% chance of victory throughout most of the year. Instead you listened to the moronic and idiotic lunacy on Fox, such as....

First and Foremost in the Lunacy Parade: Rasmussen and Gallup -- they were clearly outliers all summer long. Anyone with the intellectual curiosity to investigate realized it. Never, ever trust Rasmussen until they release their last numbers a week before the election, then subtract 3 percent from them. Gallup was quite the outlier this cycle as well.

So who else misled poor Perspective? [Portion removed by Palo Alto Online staff.]

- Before the election, Karl Rove predicted Mitt Romney would win 279 electoral votes.
- Rove continued to predict a Romney victory�even as everyone else concluded Romney had lost. Which he had.
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John McCain's top economic adviser, thought turnout would win it for Romney.
- House Speaker John Boehner said Romney would win Ohio.
- Steve Forbes said the polls were wrong and that Romney would win.
- Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell said Romney would carry Virginia.
- Dick Morris said Romney would win 325 electoral votes.
- Dean Chambers, inventor of the unskewed polls nonsense, said Romney would take 311 electoral votes.
- Michael Barone predicted a Romney landslide.
- George Will said Romney would win big.
- John Bolton said he was "very confident" Romney would win.
- Wayne Allen Root predicted a Romney landslide.
- Stu Rothenberg said the race was too close to call, even though it was clear from all available data that President Obama had a significant advantage.
- Pat Toomey said Romney would win Pennsylvania.
- Peggy Noonan said "vibrations" told her Romney was about to win.
- Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge said Romney would carry Pennsylvania.
- Charles Krauthammer said Romney would win a close victory.
- Suffolk stopped polling in Virginia and Florida because they decided Romney had locked those states up.
- The head of Mason-Dixon polling said Mitt Romney had nailed down Florida.
- Fred Barnes confidently explained to everyone why Romney will win.
- Joe Scarborough mocked Nate Silver for relying on data and said he would rather be in Mitt Romney's shoes than President Obama's.
- Eric Cantor declared Romney would win Virginia.
- Romney's own campaign predicted he would win 300 electoral votes.
- Glenn Beck predicted a Romney landslide.
- Jeb Bush said Florida would go Romney's way.
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich not only said Romney would win Ohio, but that he'd seen internal polls showing Romney ahead.
- David Brooks mocked analysis like Nate Silver's.
- Dylan Byers treated Nate Silver's partisan opponents with equal credibility as Silver himself.
- Bill Kristol predicted a Romney victory.
- Ari Fleischer said Romney would win comfortably.
- James Pethokoukis of American Enterprise Institute predicted a Romney win.
- Newt Gingrich guaranteed Romney would win by at least six points.
- Dave Weigel predicted a Romney victory.
- Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard claimed Romney would win.

links available for any of those statements, or just do a search.

What a bunch of hooey! They misled the far right fringe yet again, and all look like complete fools now. Why would anyone ever, ever listen to them again?!?!?

The common thread? Most are the Fox, and other right wing fringe echo chamber, usual suspects. To be fair, Dan Rather also though Romney had a shot, despite all evidence to the contrary.

The rest of us? We read. Then we ask questions about what we read. Me? I switch between Beck and those buffoons armstrong and getty most mornings on my way to work. It's sickening, but at least I understand where Perspective's odd rhetoric posted above comes from.

Final on numbers, and then a suggested read later.

The day before the election, Nate Silver and 538 had Obama as a 90% chance to be reelected.

NY Times 538 calculus: Romney chance 9.1% (-13.5 since Oct. 30) Obama chance 90.9% (+13.5 since Oct. 30)

Web Link

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Posted by That User Name is already
a resident of another community
on Nov 8, 2012 at 12:52 pm

That User Name is already is a registered user.

Romney finally concedes in Florida. That adds 29 electoral votes for a 332-206 victory.

332-206, a margin of 126 votes.

The Obama thrashing of McCain in 2008? 365 - 173; with Obama only getting two more states than 2012 (NC and MO, iirc) Add two senators and half a dozen reps. Defending an impossible 23 of 33 senate seats, Democrats returned EVERY incumbent and added two.

Quit saying this was close.

It wasn't.


What was it Bush talked about after winning in 2004? Oh, yeah, the political capital that comes with a mandate from a landslide....

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