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The National Weather Service is warning of another weather pattern that will lead to an increased risk of wildfires in the Bay Area this week.
There are light-to-moderate northeast winds with poor humidity forecasted on Monday and Tuesday followed by moderate-to-strong winds on Wednesday and Thursday.
In the North Bay mountains and East Bay hills, wind strength is expected to increase through Thursday, with gusts of up to 55 mph starting Wednesday night.
Similar weather patterns prompted PG&E to proactively shut off power for hundreds of thousands of customers starting on Oct. 9.
So far, the utility has not warned of any upcoming power shutoffs associated with the upcoming weather pattern.
PG&E’s handling of the proactive shutoffs was widely criticized.
At a meeting of the California Public Utilities Commission on Friday, CPUC President Marybel Batjer called the execution “inadequate” and said it “can not be repeated.”
“The utility’s plans for these events are only effective when they are implemented in a reasonable and competent manner. This did not happen last week,” Batjer said.
“The loss of power endangers lives, especially those individuals who are reliant on power for medical reasons,” she said.
In particular, she said that PG&E was not prepared to provide information about the event. Its call centers were overloaded and its website to tell customers whether they would lose power frequently crashed.
Even some local governments reported a “total breakdown” in communications with PG&E, she said.
Bill Johnson, PG&E’s president and CEO, said that while it was impossible to prove that the shutoffs prevented them, he pointed to the lack of catastrophic wildfires during the high wind event as evidence that the shutoff was effective.
Climate change has led to more of PG&E’s service areas being at risk for wildfires. Johnson said that since 2012, the utility’s territory considered to have elevated wildfire risk has gone from 15% to more than 50%.
There have been devastating wildfires in California the last two autumn seasons. The Camp Fire last year – which killed 86 people and destroyed 18,806 structures – was easily the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state’s history.
The fire was linked to PG&E lines. The utility has been criticized for its attention to safety and maintenance, but Johnson argued that its system in most of the wildfire-affected areas was “in pretty good shape” after an “unprecedented” inspection and repair process.
While he said that the communication issues were “not acceptable and cannot happen again,” he warned that it could be a decade for PG&E to improve its infrastructure to the point that safety shutoffs won’t be a regular feature of California life.
Each year he said that PG&E will be able to reduce the number of necessary shutoffs, both by improving the infrastructure and safety features and by exercising more precision in who the utility shuts down.
But the technological improvements necessary will take up to 10 years to implement, he said.
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Today is the 28th anniversary of the Oakland firestorm that killed 25 and destroyed 3500 dwellings. In many ways we are still recovering,more from the failure of human systems and contracts than the disaster itself. We will be negativity affected financially for the rest of our lives, and yes, we had what we thought was good insurance. I am discouraged by how little has changed for the North Bay survivors.
I am spending the day doing medical billing paperwork that is just abusively punishing, as I have already been shoveling through it all month, and dealing with the inevitable depression and stress because of how insurers weaponized the paperwork in the years following the fire and how similar this is. Both my spouse and I struggle because of it. I’m not a single payer fan but would do it tomorrow if it relieved this regular assault. I have requested an accountant as an accommodation because vision problems have made it harder this year, but no dice. (One of the millions of Americans with a federal plan, so no bad faith protection or ability to complain to the state or due, and no consumer protection from DC.)
Get those shake roofs replaced people! Cut back weeds but no power tools…
How many more enemies will PG&E make this week?
This is fire season in California.
As for Silicon Valley, we are sitting ducks, or pawns, in this. If PG&E decide to switch off power again, we have no alternative but to play their game.
Can Foothills Park be closed at times of high risk for fire?
What about other parks in the hills around the SF Bay? Should we be closing hiking trails, etc. when the power is switched off?
Keeping unnecessary people away from the hilly areas where there is potential fire alerts would make sense to me. This would make it easier for residents to escape in a fire as well as easier for emergency personnel to access a fire area.
Additionally, can we ban bikes from roads in the hills when there is a potential for fires in hills. Bikes would be a big problem both in how to get the riders out as well as bikes being abandoned on the sides of roads as the riders get rides away from a fire.
Posted by Resident, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
>> This is fire season in California.
Yes.
>> As for Silicon Valley, we are sitting ducks, or pawns, in this. If PG&E decide to switch off power again, we have no alternative but to play their game.
A reminder for those dependent on DSL-based (e.g. AT&T) or cable-based (e.g. Comcast) telephone service– it is generally -your- responsibility to provide backup power for your internet box (DSL modem, cable box, WiFi). A larger-size battery UPS will work for a low-power device or two.
I try to minimize the amount of value I have in my freezer at this time of year. Small UPS battery backup generally not practical for refrigerator/freezers. Maybe in 10 years we will all have a multipurpose reversible car-charger+powerwall-type battery backup etc., but, in the meantime, the freezer may be an issue…
>> Can Foothills Park be closed at times of high risk for fire?
I’m not sure Foothills Park is that much of a risk. During these periods, I’ve seen them block off the barbecues and check on people suspected of smoking. Most trails are close to a fire road; the major concern would be making sure people can evacuate quickly. It probably would make sense to close the back side of the Los Trancos Trail.
>> What about other parks in the hills around the SF Bay? Should we be closing hiking trails, etc. when the power is switched off?
You make a good point. I’ve been on some trails in some parks where escape in case of fire would be problematic. I don’t hike those trails during these conditions.
>> Keeping unnecessary people away from the hilly areas where there is potential fire alerts would make sense to me. >> This would make it easier for residents to escape in a fire as well as easier for emergency personnel to access a fire area.
I don’t think that most parking areas are that big and the crowds are that dense in most areas. Rancho San Antonio would be the counterexample.
>> Additionally, can we ban bikes from roads in the hills when there is a potential for fires in hills. Bikes would be a big problem both in how to get the riders out as well as bikes being abandoned on the sides of roads as the riders get rides away from a fire.
I know that bikes concern you, but, I think that bikers will be able to evacuate more quickly than cars. In fact, people in the hills might want to consider evacuation via bike in some cases. They can get off the road and out of the way of firetrucks and around obstructions. Downhill on, e.g., Page Mill, they can go as fast or faster than a line of cars. Uphill, if the fire is below, there are a lot of lateral routes including routes not available to cars. Something to think about, but, in many cases, bikes would be superior. In these firestorm incidents, we’ve seen fronts average up to 6 MPH, with firebrand-caused spotting ahead in places. A lot more people can ride at an average of 10 MPH for two hours than can jog/run at 6 MPH for 3-1/2 hours to do a 20 mile evacuation. Evacuation via bike is something that some people may want to consider.
The last huge Redding fire was started by a vehicle pulling a trailer.
Countless fires have been started by a car’s near red hot exhaust and/or catalytic converters when parked over tall grass.
If we’re worried about vehicles creating fire dangers, lets start with the vehicles that have started many many fires over the years.
Also, as stated above, bikes would be the superior way to get away from a wildfire because the cars will have jammed up all the roads.
Hahaha and good try though, angry anti-bike man. I see you, LOL.
Some public parks do close down on high fire alert days, especially Mount Diablo State Park that has lots of dry grass, warmer than average temperatures for the Bay Area, and lots of wind.
“bikes would be the superior way to get away from a wildfire”
Are you serious?
Escaping the Tubbs or Atlas fires by pedaling (in high winds, absurd smoke and ember filled air, advancing at high speeds) would be a death sentence for most people. And, I might add, a particularly terrifying, horrible way to go. Your lungs would be scorched before the fire consumes you.
Speeds of the fires: https://www.pressdemocrat.com/multimedia/7567543-181/santa-rosas-tubbs-fire-spread and “the Camp Fire in Northern California spread at more than a football field a second, or around 80 football fields per minute.”
God God – the Tubbs fire was so fast, it torched a major hotel in the middle of north Santa Rosa burnt to a crisp without a hose being laid on it.
But put on your spandex and have a go at it!
Posted by spandex, medium rare, a resident of Greenmeadow
>> Escaping the Tubbs or Atlas fires by pedaling (in high winds, absurd smoke and ember filled air, advancing at high speeds) would be a death sentence for most people. And, I might add, a particularly terrifying, horrible way to go. Your lungs would be scorched before the fire consumes you.
I’m very aware of the danger. But, note something regarding the following quote:
>> Speeds of the fires: Web Link and “the Camp Fire in Northern California spread at more than a football field a second, or around 80 football fields per minute.”
Watch distance vs area. The burned area expanded at that rate during one period. For the Tubbs fire, one of the referenced articles says this:
>> In just over four hours, the Tubbs fire made a horrific 12-mile run from Calistoga, in the northern edge of the Napa Valley, into a dense city neighborhood in west Santa Rosa. […]
>> The fire traveled at a pace of about 3 mph, burning up about an acre a minute while spewing burning embers a half-mile or more ahead, forcing entire neighborhoods to flee in the middle of the night.**
Many people can walk at a speed of 4 mph, and, can bicycle at 10 mph. However, it is easy to get cut off if you don’t leave in time and your escape route gets closer to the flame front. People get deceived by the apparent fairly slow speed of the main fire, and then get cut off by new spot fires behind them caused by wind-driven burning embers. Eucalyptus is particularly dangerous in that regard– the high winds can send burning firebrands miles ahead of the main fire. In the Tubbs fire, many people mistakenly thought that the fire was “far away” when it was on the other side of Porter Creek Rd at midnight. 2-3 hrs later, the Santa Rosa neighborhoods were burning. But, the fire was “only” averaging 3 mph. Anyone confused by this should study the maps to see how simple it is to get caught at only 3 mph.
** https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/7525440-181/the-tubbs-fire-how-its?ref=related&artslide=0&sba=AAS
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/multimedia/7567543-181/santa-rosas-tubbs-fire-spread
BTW to those who say minimise what is contained in our freezers. Speaking for our family, our freezer is at its most full at this time of year, full of summer fruits for winter pies and veggies for winter soups and casseroles and tomatoes for pasta sauces. Those of us who grow food in summer want to be able to use our freezers to store them for the winter. For those who have generators (not many I know) it is the contents of our freezers that are the most important as opposed to computers. A news report interviewing restaurants and food businesses showed that it is the destruction of food that causes the main problem even after lack of business from customers.
Stanford has announced it has closed the Dish on Thursday due to high fire danger. It would be wise, imo, for Palo Alto to close both Arastradero Park and Foothills Park for the same reason.
Keeping unnecessary traffic off Page Mill Road seems like a no brainer to me in times of high fire danger as well as keeping the potential of having to evacuate a park when a fire has already started.
Posted by Resident, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
>> Speaking for our family, our freezer is at its most full at this time of year, full of summer fruits for winter pies and veggies […] For those who have generators (not many I know) it is the contents of our freezers that are the most important as opposed to computers. A news report interviewing restaurants and food businesses showed that it is the destruction of food that causes the main problem even after lack of business from customers.
There is no simple solution to your requirements. The power grid has never been “UPS”, let alone to the single family home level, in a city of trees in a place that has always has wind storms. “The market” doesn’t support your requirements– you can buy very expensive small refrigerators designed for the healthcare industry to support high-value items like blood products and vaccines, but, these are small and expensive. Refrigerators use too much power for simple, small, inexpensive battery backup. Your own inexpensive generator is about your only option today, although in the future there will be products that will support your requirement– e.g. Tesla Powerwall. But, seriously, don’t ever expect the grid to be 100% up. It is not going to happen.
We’re not talking about flat areas, we’re talking about getting down PM or across a fire cut or trail then down, and doing it faster than the inevitable line of cars would be able to, if at all.
Flatland? Cars are best. Getting down page Mill, Bikes win, esp when everyone else is in their car. Sitting still would be the assured death sentence in that case. That’s where cars will be, while the people on bikes maneuver around them, just like current traffic jams in town.
If you’re the only guy on the mountain with a car or the roads are empty, then you’ll be fine.
Palo Alto Utilities are now monitoring the foothills in case they need to switch off power. PAFD have also moved a fire truck up there.
Anyone going up there for recreational reasons could potentially be in harm’s way. If a fire starts, there is no way of knowing how many people are in Foothills Park and most of them won’t have a phone signal to alert them if there is an evacuation order. There is no way to know just how many hikers/bikers could be trapped without knowing of an emergency.
There is no way to know anything in life. Cocoon yourself inside and tremble as needed.
I’ll be hiking in FH park today, look me up if it’s not too scary for you.
Some friends and I will be doing a 5 mile walk, meeting by the restrooms at 9am…and 3 of them don’t live in PA(!!!) LOL 🙂
When discussing times and dates, I want to know full dates. This article supplies the date (at the top, 10/20) but later uses ambiguous days of the week (Tuesday, etc.) Today I’m reading this and writing about it on 10/26, and when I read to expect winds to increase Tuesday, I momentarily thought this exempted the days 10/26 to 10/29 (next Tuesday). But I took a moment to look at the date of posting, in part because I had heard that today would be a “bad” day for winds. Can writers and editors to a bit more to hear what they are saying as it can be misunderstood, when the issues are critical, and brevity and style may be less important than clarity? BTW I love this paper, and mean no anger or sarcasm.
> When discussing times and dates, I want to know full dates.
Then go to the source, not to an underfunded local paper, particularly to a week old article. Also suggest NIXLE, various social media connections directly to the local OES’s, twitter directly to Pathetic Gas & Electric, 740am, etc..
A week old article????
Sorry, I understand the frustration, but we’ve three summers of this kind of disaster. It’s here to stay. Define and design your particular response methods. Use multiple sources, diversify for protection in different environments (power loss, quake, etc..)
I’d recommend also add overall air quality to the mix – airnow https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=317