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While some California residents opted to leave the state during the pandemic, far fewer people are also moving to the state from other parts of the country, according to new research from the University of California at Berkeley’s California Policy Lab.
The amount of people leaving the state has increased by 12% between March 2020 and September 2021, a figure roughly on pace with pre-pandemic levels, according to the California Policy Lab.
However, while migration to California generally kept pace with migration out of the state prior to the pandemic, entrances to California have fallen by 38%.
“The public’s attention has been focused on the so-called ‘CalExodus’ phenomenon, but the reality is that the dramatic drop in ‘CalEntrances’ since the pandemic began has been a bigger driver of recent population changes in the state,” said Natalie Holmes, the report’s co-author, a California Policy Lab research fellow and a Ph.D. student at UC Berkeley.
The researchers found that all 58 of the state’s counties had seen declines in migration from other states, with entrances to California decreasing between 25% and 45% in every region of the state.
That rate was even higher in the Bay Area, as San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties each saw their out-of-state entrances fall by roughly 50%.
The number of people moving away from the state from those counties rose by 34%, 26% and 15%, respectively, according to the California Policy Lab.
“If these trends continue, the implications for California are significant, ranging from federal funding allocations and tax revenues to how many seats we have in Congress,” Holmes said. “Population swings can have even more dramatic effects on local jurisdictions.”
While data on emigration to California from other countries was not included in the report — and has supported California’s population growth in recent years — overall growth slowed to such an extent during the pandemic that California’s year-over-year population declined in 2020 for the first time in more than a century.
Likewise, while California’s population grew between 2010 and 2020, the results of the 2020 U.S. Census found that the state’s growth occurred at a slower rate than other parts of the country.
The full report from the California Policy Lab can be found at capolicylab.org.
I think California has always had an attraction for people with a migrant attitude. Since moving here myself in the 90s, people seem to have been leaving and arriving all the time. The number of edits to my personal address book are very common with those who have had a California and even Bay Area address much more than those who have put down roots in other parts of the country.
In the past week, 2 more in my circle have left the state.
Progressive/liberal one party rule politics is most likely the reason people don’t want to move here. The state is somewhat of a mess because of it.
I love California and have lived here all my life. I understand why people are no longer flocking to California, especially during a pandemic. What keeps people away (IMO) is the cost of living and the progressive politics, which some of us choose to ignore. Like oppressive, government tyranny — mask wearing in a highly vaccinated/low case rate county.
Fewer people are necessary to the future of a habitable planet. The more people that leave the state and the fewer that come, the better it is for all the other forms of life – more trees, more birds, less pollution, less climate change.
Almost 40 million people in California have put unsustainable pressures on the ecosystem of this state. All of these people have caused habitat destruction, air and water pollution, scarcity of resources, deforestation, traffic overcrowding of recreation areas, climate change and we are not better for it. Every major environmental problem can be laid at the feet of too many people.
It is probably a very short lived trend here, but I hope that I am wrong. If the human population got smaller every year it would be great news each Christmas. Here and around the world it is the only way to save the planet!