'It can happen here': Local fire agencies grapple with new era of 'megafires' | News | Palo Alto Online |

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'It can happen here': Local fire agencies grapple with new era of 'megafires'

Experts: Climate change is producing drier vegetation, hotter weather all year

Ignited in September 2016, the Loma Fire in south Santa Clara County burned 4,474 acres, destroyed 28 structures and lasted nearly a year. More than 1,000 firefighters and 18 agencies battled the blaze. It was started by sparks from a portable generator used in illegal marijuana cultivation. Photo courtesy Cal Fire.

One of the most frightening days in Palo Alto Fire Chief Geoffrey Blackshire's career came on a sunny, warm June afternoon in 2014. The call came at 2:13 p.m. A driver rounding a hairpin turn on a mountainous stretch of Page Mill Road had tried to avoid a deer. The car swerved and then plowed head-on into an embankment, bursting into flames.

The dry grasses and brush in the oak-filled woodland at the Foothills Open Space Preserve were set ablaze, and the fire was moving at a moderate speed. All of the conditions were ripe for a fire that could have blown up into a major conflagration — save for the lack of wind.

When Blackshire, who was then a battalion chief, and his crews arrived, the blaze had spread to 1.5 acres. Thankfully, firefighters were able to contain it.

For Blackshire, the fire was a cautionary tale of how the vagaries of nature can either cause a wildfire to spread uncontrollably — or spare a community from burning. Two factors contributed to the fire's quick containment that day: the air was mercifully calm instead of the predicted 18 mph, and the city had opened Foothills Fire Station 8 early.

"There was zero wind. All it would take is for the wind to blow and the fire would have taken off. It was in the heart of a lot of vegetation there," he said in 2014.

California's wildfire "season" isn't seasonal anymore. With climate change producing drier vegetation and hotter weather, it's year-round, experts said.

In an April 9 report to the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors, county Fire Chief Tony Bowden wrote that the last 10 fire seasons have produced seven of California's most destructive wildland fires.

"It is clear we are seeing unprecedented fire behavior and destruction and need to take immediate action to reduce our risk and ensure Santa Clara County can respond effectively to the 'new normal,'" he said.

Blackshire agreed.

"We're in an era of megafires," he said during a recent phone interview. "Fifteen to 20 of the largest fires in state history are post-2000. We have to adapt to this climate change."

"It can happen here," he said. "To think that it can't would be irresponsible."

A change in the land

The forested slopes and grasslands of the Santa Cruz Mountains haven't experienced a big wildfire since 1912, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) data. Higher air-moisture levels, fog, cooler temperatures and close proximity of firefighting forces have helped to keep a devastating fire at bay, local experts said. But that's changing.

Land use and management practices such as suppressing natural fires, along with greater human activity in the coastal foothills and mountains, are increasing the chances that larger wildfires will occur, fire agency leaders said. Approximately 85% of wildfires are sparked by the actions of people, according to the U.S. Forest Service and the National Interagency Fire Center.

A 2016 map in the Santa Clara County Community Wildfire Protection Plan shows the risks of humans living in and near wildlands: The locations of wildfires have migrated over time, from remote areas pre-1900 toward urban centers in Santa Clara County. Dozens of fires after 2010 have occurred closer to urban areas where fires were not previously recorded in significant numbers.

Like much of the foothills and mountains west of Interstate 280, Palo Alto's open space areas are rated an "extreme" risk, according to an assessment in the county wildfire plan. Abundant grasslands in and around Pearson-Arastradero Preserve are primed for fires that would run along the ground. A sizable portion of Foothills Park has trees that could torch individually like candles, according to the county protection plan. Embers from those flaming trees can travel long distances, igniting fences, homes, businesses and sparking new wildland fires, which when joined, can burn out of control.

Findings in Palo Alto's 2016 updated Foothills Fire Management Plan, which ran computer models of fire behavior under extreme weather conditions, are sobering.

"There is very little in the landscape that does not burn," the report stated, noting that flames could reach 213 feet tall.

So far, the area has been lucky. But wind, combined with sparks and dry vegetation, has fire agencies and some researchers worried.

According to the 2018 California Fourth Climate Change Assessment, dry, warm air flowing to the coast is playing a key role in amplifying "fire weather" conditions. In October 2017, such wind fanned fires that led to enormous damage in Sonoma and Napa counties.

In October, gusts of up to 102 miles per hour fed the Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, according to some weather reports.

On the San Francisco Peninsula, the northeast wind comes across the bay into Palo Alto and up into the foothills — keeping the area safer than places like Paradise. But the wind isn't predictable.

"It can come the other way, especially as the seasons change," said Patty Ciesla, executive director of the Santa Clara County Fire Safe Council.

"The wind can drive the fires so hard and fast that firefighters can't get to them without danger to themselves," she said. "My fear is, we'll have an alignment where the fire is able to blow with such speed and ferociousness we can't do anything about it."

Hotter winds, regardless of their strength, also dry out vegetation. And more than a century of fire-suppression practices have provided the fuel for major conflagrations, said Bill Murphy, fire captain for Santa Clara County Fire Department.

"Landscapes 100 years ago had drastically less fuel than are on hillsides today. We are seeing some of the lowest fuel moistures ever recorded. When you get fire in that environment, it's a recipe for disaster.

"Fire is a form of energy. The more fuel, the more energy can be released. Irrespective of wind, if enough energy is released, the fire is going to move. It is generating tremendous convective energy," he said.

Land managers and fire agencies are scrambling to reduce the fuel loads in forests and grasslands that lead to large-scale fires, which won't prevent them but might drastically reduce them, they said.

In any event, Blackshire said that it will take everyone — the public, land managers, fire departments, park rangers, cities, government agencies, utilities companies — working together to keep ahead of potential wildfires to come.

Focusing on the best defense

The problem is so vast that land managers and fire agencies must pick their battles, they said. Their most important strategy is to create and maintain "defensible space" against fires — areas around a building or road where vegetation, debris or combustible materials are cleared to slow the spread of fire.

Local agencies are focused on several areas: around schools, power stations, hospitals and other crucial infrastructure and a roughly half-mile-wide swath between wildlands and inhabited areas.

Evacuation routes are at the top of the list for clearing. The city of Palo Alto, Santa Clara County Fire Safe Council and Cal Fire all work to reduce undergrowth and overhanging branches along critical roadways. Many routes in the Santa Cruz Mountains have only one way in or out. A fire spreading across the tree canopy to both sides of a road would form a fire tunnel, preventing people from escaping and emergency responders from getting into the area, agency managers said.

As of 2016, the city of Palo Alto reported in an updated Foothills Fire Management Plan that evacuation routes on Arastradero, Page Mill and Los Trancos roads, within and south of Foothills Park and west and east of Pearson-Arastradero Preserve had been cleared. Based on modeling the city did to estimate the impact of the work, under extreme dry-weather conditions with wind blowing uphill at 20 miles per hour, flames that would have been 9 feet tall would only rise 2 feet. The fire's spread would move five times more slowly.

The Fire Safe Council has helped crews manage vegetation along Page Mill and Arastradero, cutting back vegetation 30 feet from the road edge and 10 feet from the ground, Ciesla said.

This year, the council is working with Caltrans and Santa Clara County Fire Department on a particularly dangerous part of State Route 17, cleaning out the dead wood that, in a fire, might make the road impassable. The crews remove shrubs and grasses and churn the soil from the roadside edge up a steep hillside and away from utility poles. With very little vegetation left on the ground but still enough to hold the soil and prevent mudslides, "flames hopefully will not be very tall or very hot, and it will be more like being next to a fireplace," Ciesla said.

Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District, Palo Alto's Foothills Park and Stanford University are also creating similar "defensible spaces" on their lands with a variety of tools: from shovels to graders, mowers to chainsaws, and goats that graze to controlled fires, which burn off dry vegetation. Read more in "Preventing disasters in open space preserves" and "At Stanford, a complex wildlands-fire scenario."

Midpeninsula Open Space District spokeswoman Leigh Ann Gessner said the district currently allows grazing animals on 11,000 of its preserves' 65,000 acres. The grazing helps control invasive weeds and reduces the amount of flammable vegetation.

Even the best-laid plans

All of the agencies will require one critical thing to achieve their plan goals: funding. The state began making investments, but it will take billions of dollars to reduce wildfire threats, fire experts said.

In 2018, former Gov. Jerry Brown signed a $1.1 billion package to clear forests of dry vegetation over the next five years.

Gov. Gavin Newsom in July signed a catastrophic wildfire and safety bill. In October, spurred by a new round of devastating wildfires, he signed 22 bills based on recommendations from the Governor's Strike Force Report of Wildfires.

Newsom approved another $1 billion in the state budget for preparedness and the state's capacity to respond to emergencies. The budget included 13 new fire engines, and a $127.2 million investment to expand Cal Fire's fleet with C-130 air tankers and modified Black Hawk helicopters for nighttime firefighting.

Newsom also signed an executive order authorizing nearly 400 seasonal firefighters to Cal Fire this year. Another $210 million from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund will help Cal Fire complete more fuel-reduction projects, among other efforts.

Other bills will develop models for defensible space and standards for home hardening and construction materials to increase community fire safety and require investor-owned utilities to include information about undergrounding utility lines in their wildfire mitigation plans.

Santa Clara County's Board of Supervisors is considering spending $1.3 million on fighting wildfires. In April, the supervisors received a work plan by the Santa Clara County Fire Marshal's Office, which estimated a need for $1.2 million in fiscal year 2019-2020 and $1.3 million in fiscal year 2020-2021 for fire-fighting vehicles and 10 wildland fire cameras to help spot fires when they start.

Future costs could include an estimated $5.5 million for personnel and equipment for managing vegetation and curtailing fires. The work plan also adds an estimated $7 million to the program's wishlist for a refurbished helicopter.

One wildcard in preventing wildfires, of course, is Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). Throughout its system, the utility company has approximately 81,000 miles of overhead distribution lines and approximately 26,000 miles of underground distribution lines, which transmit electricity from substations to customers. PG&E's electric transmission system from power plants to substations is about 18,000 miles, the majority of which are overhead lines, the company noted.

Putting the utility's overhead lines underground would cost $3 million per mile, according to a PG&E fact sheet, totaling $297 billion.

Under the California Public Utilities Commission Electric Rule 20A, the utility company is supposed to dedicate funds for undergrounding its overhead lines. An audit of PG&E published Oct. 15 found that the company has underspent commission-adopted amounts by $123 million since 2007, yet the funding for undergrounding was embedded in ratepayers' electric bills.

With literally miles to go in the effort to make the Bay Area safe from wildfires, Blackshire said that people will have to adapt to the new reality. Already, residents and businesses are facing repeated electrical shut-offs during "red flag" weather warnings, he said. It might be necessary to have pre-emptive evacuations instead of waiting until fire breaks out because when the wind whips in the night, danger rises, he said.

Blackshire said many questions about wildfire prevention are still unanswered: how to allocate fire personnel and equipment to fight multiple fires at once and how to prepare for more and greater fires. Fire crews, too, must adapt, and agencies must prepare to supply them with aid and counseling.

"The fires are taking a toll on firefighters. It takes an emotional and physical toll," he said, noting the lingering effects of witnessing heartbroken residents standing amid the smoldering ruins of their homes.

Part of adaptation also requires acceptance that change is here and is likely to continue.

"As we adapt more, we can acknowledge there is a change," he said.

Murphy agreed.

"We have to rethink land management. We didn't get into the problem overnight, and we're not going to get out of it overnight," he said.

Related content:

How to protect your home against wildfire

Weekly journalists will discuss this issue on an episode of "Behind the Headlines" coming out later today. A link to the show will be posted here, on our YouTube channel and podcast page.

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Comments

21 people like this
Posted by oldster
a resident of Downtown North
on Dec 6, 2019 at 8:38 am

Despite what Fox News claims, the climate is significantly changing right before our eyes. I can remember when California's rainy season reliably started in October every year and the ski resorts at Lake Tahoe were usually open for Thanksgiving with all natural snow. Now days, the rainy season starts 1 or 2 months later in most years. The longer hotter more windy dry season is a big fire hazard to cities that didn't need to plan for it before.


8 people like this
Posted by Resident
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 6, 2019 at 8:55 am

Comparing climate to 50 or 60 years ago is not enough. Climate has to be studied in 100s or years and even longer. Unfortunately many records do not go back that far but many do. We have to look at climate indicators from things like the rings in old trees and the stratas in pack ice and glaciers.

For California, for example, the climate has been altered by man made alterations to the landscape. The valleys were swamps in winter and droughts in winter. With water management we have altered the landscape for agriculture and other uses. This has altered the bugs, the wildlife and the amount of water in our rivers and natural waterways.

Remembering with nostalgia the weather of our childhoods is not very scientific. Looking at records and data from 100 years ago to see how temps and rainfall have changed. It may be very convenient to look at the 70s to see changes, but how about what was happening in the 50s, the 30s when we also have other scientific records? Or would those data points be more similar to what we are seeing now?


7 people like this
Posted by dilly dally deny den
a resident of Old Palo Alto
on Dec 6, 2019 at 10:19 am

> It may be very convenient to look at the 70s to see changes, but how about what was happening in the 50s, the 30s when we also have other scientific records?

Deniers. The combination of doltishness, ignorance and/or willfulness (on the payroll of the extraction industry?) is stunning. I used to assume good intentions, that they were just ignorant and had not been reading. But geez, really?

The "gosh, maybe we need more data" fallacy, at this point, is the dumbest denier argument.


Yo, resident: what are the ten hottest years on record?

Try:
2016
2015
2017
2018
2014
2010
2013
2005
2009
1998







11 people like this
Posted by Anon
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 6, 2019 at 10:26 am

>> The problem is so vast that land managers and fire agencies must pick their battles, they said. Their most important strategy is to create and maintain "defensible space" against fires — areas around a building or road where vegetation, debris or combustible materials are cleared to slow the spread of fire.

I have to disagree with a couple of points. First, it isn't all about fuel -load-. Old-growth oaks, and, old-growth redwoods, have proven to slow down fire velocity compared to brushy or tall and thin growth and understory. Preserving as much heavy, old-growth forest, and clearing out grass, chaparral, and understory is beneficial in reducing fire risk. In fact, that is why periodic wildfires tend to increase the prevalence of some species, such as the heavier oaks, over other, less fire-resistant species.

Second, as was seen in most of the recent, most-destructive fires, "defensible space" simply is not enough. Buildings themselves have to be fire-resistant in order to survive intense wind-driven fires, because embers and firebrands can be transported by the wind for long distances.

Defensible space around homes is a necessary, but not sufficient, measure to take. Here is a guide to species of plants you might not want adjacent to your building. Web Link


5 people like this
Posted by Duvenecks
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Dec 6, 2019 at 5:08 pm

Again, I'd like to bring to mind the increassed danger that opening up Foothills Park to a plethora of non-residents could bring, especially if the BBQ facilities remain.


4 people like this
Posted by Safety First
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Dec 6, 2019 at 6:16 pm

Ah Duveneck, but that would be thinking holistically, but we don’t do that here lest it interfere with overdevelopment.


Like this comment
Posted by Anon
a resident of Atherton
on Dec 7, 2019 at 10:09 am

Posted by Safety First, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood

>> thinking holistically, but we don’t do that here lest it interfere with overdevelopment.

Exactly. Every complex problem requires multiple steps. One step that people are very resistant to is that of making buildings more fire resistant. I would have thought that Coffey Park would have been the wakeup call on that aspect, but, people are still ignoring that inconvenient conflagration.

Some folks like to use the term "fireproof", but, since most people won't live in bunkers, that word is a bit of an overstatement. There are actions that could be taken that greatly reduce the vulnerability of buildings to wildfires and firestorms. The cost is more than cosmetic, but, still generally affordable, and even "modest" when you are talking about the high-end properties that populate the landscape in, e.g., LAH. This article describes a similar property down in Hollywood Hills: Web Link


2 people like this
Posted by Pay to play.
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Dec 9, 2019 at 10:55 am

Pay to play. is a registered user.

LAH and Los Altos residents want access to Foothills Park, but they never, at any time, have offered to help PAY for the land's purchase or maintenance--though they were asked to participate in a neighborly way. They are a very wealthy community that wants Foothills access. They can afford to pay to play, and they should.

If they continue to opt to freeload, maybe Palo Alto should consider building high density housing on the edges of the park--next to fancy schmancy LAH mansions that currently have panoramic views of the park. We could use the tax revenues from these developments to do all of the necessary fire maintenance work. Perhaps a plan like that might motivate them to do their fair share.

It is tiresome to hear people trying to turn this into another access discussion. I can't think of a LAH-funded park or resource that I have ever used. LAH homes are geographically closer to Foothills Park than most Palo Alto residents' homes. They will use it more and their homes are more at risk. They want us to pay for their privilege and to mitigate their risk....They also want to keep "their" valuable panoramic views preserved. Step UP, freeloading LAH.


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