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Zogby Poll: McCain Recovers as Contest Takes Dramatic Turns

Original post made by tj, Old Palo Alto, on Sep 25, 2008

New York - Republican John McCain's poll numbers improved slightly as he suspended his campaign Wednesday to head back to Washington to focus on the looming national financial crisis, moving from more than three points behind Barack Obama last weekend to two points ahead in a Zogby Interactive survey just out of the field this morning.

McCain now leads Obama, 45.8% to 43.8%, the survey shows.

The big shift in the race appears to have come among independent voters, where McCain now leads by nine points, 43% to 34%. In the survey conducted over the weekend, Obama led by one point among independents.Web Link


I bet that Clintons strong praise of McCains leadership is having an effect on independents, but I must McCain gaining 10 points in a few days is astounding given what is going on.

Comments (7)

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Posted by OhlonePar
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Sep 25, 2008 at 11:31 am

Sorry tj,

Zogby's a weak poll and the other polls show Obama retaining his narrow lead.

Obama's consistently ahead in the recent Colorado polls--if he gets Colorado, holds on to the Kerry states and takes Iowa and New Mexico--which have been polling strongly in his direction for a while he'll have what he needs.


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Posted by poll watcher
a resident of College Terrace
on Sep 25, 2008 at 11:37 am

McCain Ahead Again in Virginia, 50% to 48%
Pennsylvania: Obama Holds Three-Point Advantage Over McCain
Ohio: McCain 50%, Obama 46%
Florida: McCain Still Ahead by Five

Closer than you think in CO
Web Link

Most Americans think only McCain and Biden prepared to be President
Web Link

This is going down to the wire, and I think there will be a surprise at the end for the Obama campaign, when push comes to shove...this is looking exactly like the last two elections...

No McCain fan here, but Obama is far from the cat's meow


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Posted by poll watcher
a resident of College Terrace
on Sep 25, 2008 at 11:38 am

the numbers above are from Rasmussen


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Posted by mary
a resident of Gunn High School
on Sep 25, 2008 at 11:39 am



The most recent polls sure do suggest that the suggestions that McCain was making a desperate move because of the meltdown he was experience in the polls was more than a little silly.

I would have expected Obama to be ahead 15 to 20 points.

McCains 10 point gain among Independents is the real news, looks like these are the guys who will swing the election in the key EC states.

It will be hilarious if Obama is left to debate with himself on Friday., of course he could ask Biden to join him as they disagree on so much, AIG, ads, Coal etc


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Posted by OhlonePar
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Sep 25, 2008 at 11:53 am

Poll Watcher,

I agree that it's going to go down to the wire. Keep in mind that Rasmussen leans slightly right and that Rasmussen lags slightly behind other polls--Rasmussen does it to filter some noise.

fivethirtyeight.com has great info on this sort of thing--and also what's going on in Colorado.

Mary,

The suggestions are that Obama will hold a Town Hall meeting and answer questions or be interviewed by Jim Lehrer.

Apparently the University of Mississippi spent $5 million on getting ready to host the debate--among other things, this is bad manners on McCain's part. Obama's right--they both have planes to get them back to Washington if need be and no, the Senate's not going to be working at 9 on a Friday night.


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Posted by OhlonePar
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Sep 25, 2008 at 12:01 pm

Here's the quote from the Rasmussen site:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. Other than the bounces related to his convention and speech in Berlin, this is the first time Obama has had 49% support on back-to-back days since early July. It's also McCain's lowest level of support in nearly three weeks (see trends).

In other words, according Rasmussen, Obama's position is stronger and McCain's position is weaker than it has been.

*All* the polls are subject to error--a big one this time is how to judge who's going to vote and what weight to give the GOP v. the Democrats. Obama's people have registered a huge number of people and it's not clear how it's going to play out. Different pollsters do it different ways.


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Posted by poll watcher
a resident of College Terrace
on Sep 25, 2008 at 12:15 pm

"Apparently the University of Mississippi spent $5 million on getting ready to host the debate--among other things, this is bad manners on McCain's part. Obama's right--they both have planes to get them back to Washington if need be and no, the Senate's not going to be working at 9 on a Friday night."

The only people watching will be Obama fans. McCain will see a bump from this; he wins either way with this tactic, because everyone knows that Obama is very weak in foreign affairs.

McCain is weak on the economy, and now he can brag that he 'cares'. Remember, most people don't follow this as closely as those on this board. They buy sound bites.

Down to the wire....


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