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Who Will Replace Baby Boomers as They Retire
Original post made
by stephen levy, University South,
on Jul 26, 2013
Retiring baby boomers will be replaced by immigrants and their children who will account for over 80% of America's labor force growth and change over the next 20 years.
During these years the large baby boom generation will move slowly out of the workforce even as many baby boomers work into their late 60s and 70s. Between 2010 and 2030 nearly 59 million workers will leave the labor force and need to be replaced and, in addition, the labor force will increase by 24 million making 83 million jobs that need to be filled by workers with the right training and experience.
Between 2010 and 2030 41% of the nation's labor force growth will come from new immigrants, 43% from the children of immigrants and just 16% from the children of native-born parents.
Most (2/3) of future job openings will come from replacing workers and both the replacement jobs and job growth will be spread among a broad spectrum of industries and occupations. And while in the future there will be more jobs that require higher levels of education, job growth will occur for workers at all educational and experience levels, from those without a high school degree to doctoral degree holders.
The nation will need a growing number of experienced workers at all skill levels due to the number of older workers that are being replaced. Because the baby boomers are more highly educated than earlier generations, replacement needs at higher skill levels will accelerate. This is a substantial shift from the situation before 2010, when a much larger share of older workers leaving the workforce had less than a high school education.
The economy will be helped if immigration policy can better reflect workforce needs. This is especially true during the coming years when there will be a substantial exodus in numbers and experience as baby boomers retire. And this is especially true in California where immigrants and their children are a larger share of the current and future workforce.
Beyond the important consideration of how to reform our immigration laws, policymakers must not neglect native-born citizens. They, similar to immigrants and their children, will also be filling many of the positions now held by baby boomers. Skill development for the entire workforce should be a priority. The urgency of our needs in this decade and the next requires that the economic implications of the generational transition in the workforce that has already begun should not be left to happenstance.
These findings come from a recent [Web Link
report by Dowell Myers and John Pitkin] of the Population Dynamics Research Group at U.S.C. and myself.
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Posted by Wayne Martin
a resident of Fairmeadow
on Jul 27, 2013 at 8:05 am
There are any number of news articles one could point to which make predictions about shifts in the nature of work in our society that will result in the "extinction" of various types of jobs:
1. Actor: Actors in film and television will be replaced by completely realistic animations. Stage actors will of course exist for a while longer, and will probably be performing in many parts of the world simultaneously, through the anticipated widespread use of holograms.
2. Cashier: Many grocery stores already have self-operated check stands, but that's just a tradeoff between a cashier doing the job and you doing it yourself, making your groceries cheaper. In the future, check stands will be fully automated. Just leave your groceries on the belt and let the robot tally it up many times faster than a human ever could. As a consequence, lines will be much less of a nuisance, as they become increasingly non-existent.
3. Construction worker: Construction work can be hazardous, so why should humans risk their lives doing it? Insurance companies certainly won't cover a construction firm that that takes such unnecessary risks. Robotics are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and they'll be constructing buildings cheaper, and far more rapidly than humans.
4. Soldier: Compared to sophisticated robots, humans are relatively susceptible to mental deficiencies such as nervousness, pride, stupidity, miscalculation, and slow reaction time. In other words: computers can do the same job more efficiently, without risking human life, and without apprehension.
5. Security guard: Buy a strong, obedient robot that can see in the dark, never falls asleep on duty, and won't accept bribes, to protect your home or your business.
6. Car mechanic: Cars will become too technically complex to repair for humans. Computers and robots will take care of it. Eventually, cars will fix themselves. They've already started driving themselves.
7. Garbage collector: Instead of two slow, weak and unhappy guys tossing garbage into the back of the truck, a single fast, strong and highly "motivated" robot will complete the process in five seconds.
8. Assembly line worker: Automakers, textile producers and furniture factories (to mention some industries) around the world are cutting costs by reducing their number of salary, pension and insurance absorbing employees, and shifting focus to mechanical solutions.
9. Toll booth operator: Many developed countries have already successfully implemented moeny-and-time saving automatic toll booths with video detection and post payment/subscriptions.
10. Prostitute: The completely completely lifelike robot girlfriends will obviate the demand for carnal services in the future.
11.Nature photographer: Closeups from inside the lion's cave and year-long stakeouts without the need for food or shelter are the advantages I can see robots having, off the top of my head.
12. Surgeon: Why let a nervous, shaky doctor with poor eyesight cut you with knives and fool around inside of you, when a steady handed, ice cool and accurate robot can do it instead? Medical malpractice lawsuits cost the American health providers some $30 billion each year. This will end.
13. Pilot: Computerized pilots are not like regular pilots in that they are not prone to human error, i.e. they won't spill coffee on the instrument panels in the cockpit or miscalculate their landing angle. Nor do they need good visibility to fly, as their millimeter-accurate GPS and sensor systems will guide them blindly to their destination. Obviously, they will have to prove their merit before plane passengers, and by extension airlines, can trust them.
14. Film processor: Even today it seems absurd to have a full time employee engaged in nothing but changing film, and most modern movie theaters are rapidly moving away from this.
15. Librarian: Libraries will soon look very different. Why have a library containing 50,000 paper made books when you can have 50 million of them in virtual form, which you can access with your library card and download to your kindle or iPad. There will not be any need for humans to process the lending of books.
16. Call center operator: By 2029, when computers are scheduled to match human intelligence, a microchip will call your house and argue that you do in fact need flood insurance.
17. News anchor: No mispronunciations, no misunderstandings, no Freudian slips, just a perfectly articulate teleprompter with a (beautiful) face.
18. Mailman: Who sends snail-mail these days? Mostly nostalgic pen pals. While we may have a small segment left of the paper mail industry, most of the things we use the mail for either is transitioning to or has already moved completely online: Bills, public notices, and business-letters. Although, we'll still need package delivery (at least until nanotechnology enables us to send and download material objects like we send files today, in 30-40 years.)
19. Waiters: Robots don't have an attitude, won't spit in your food, and don't need tips. They can work tirelessly around the clock, be ultra-efficient and be called upon by clicking a button in your menu.
20. Receptionist: Artificial intelligence and robotics sciences are approaching a point where the robots we can make will match humans in terms of intelligence. These robots will be our faithful servants who perform the menial tasks, so humans can focus on developing themselves.
Studies that do not at least make an effort to factor in these possible "job extinctions" may well be in significant error as time unfolds.