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Gas Prices - a prediction!

Original post made by Jag Singh on Oct 9, 2006

Isn't it remarkable that just a few weeks prior to the mid-term election, gas prices have been on a downward trend. Also, the maintenance problems which plagued BP at their Alaskan Pipeline facility have suddenly dissipated! I predict gas prices will increase shortly after the election and BP's problems will resurface!

Comments (10)

Posted by anonymous, a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Oct 10, 2006 at 2:16 am

Jag, you're absolutely right -- again! While you and I know that Bush isn't a very effective president (he can't even get his agenda through a House and Senate controlled by Republicans), he has cleverly convinced the tens of thousands of decision-makers who buy and sell the 81 million barrels of oil the world uses each day to cut their prices. He even got Iran and Venezuela to help out. Bush is truly a genius who can do anything, from lowering oil prices to coordinating the 9/11 attack to creating hurricanes in order to displace poor people (who he hates) in New Orleans. And, yes, you're right -- Bush has told everyone involved in the oil industry to increase their prices after election day. In fact, I think Dan Rather has some documents that prove it.


Posted by maybe, maybe not, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Oct 10, 2006 at 12:46 pm

Does is really require a complete cynic to believe that the current drop in oil prices is simply a propitious coincidence for the GOP?

From Walter Shapiro's Salon review of State of Denial by Bob Woodward:

[...]It is not accidental that "State of Denial" begins with a reprise of the Bush family's intimate relationship with a former Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar. At the instruction of his father (Bush 41), Bush (soon to be 43) met with Bandar in 1997 and confided, "I'm thinking of running for president And I don't have the foggiest idea about what I think about international foreign policy." You do not have to be a Michael Moore-style conspiracy theorist to find it worrisome that a Saudi prince is put in charge of giving a future president his worldview.

The book also describes Bandar's Oval Office meeting in early 2004 with Bush, Condi Rice (then the national security advisor) and White House chief of staff Andrew Card (another source, since he has now left the administration). Bush, Woodward writes, "thanked Bandar for what the Saudis were doing on oil — essentially flooding the market and trying to keep the price as low as possible. [Bush] expressed appreciation for the policy and the impact it could have during the election year."

CBS:

Woodward says that Bandar understood that economic conditions were key before a presidential election: "They're [oil prices] high. And they could go down very quickly. That's the Saudi pledge. Certainly over the summer, or as we get closer to the election, they could increase production several million barrels a day and the price would drop significantly."


Posted by oops, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Oct 10, 2006 at 12:47 pm

of course I meant NOT a coincidence....


Posted by ARF, a resident of Palo Alto Orchards
on Oct 10, 2006 at 1:24 pm

I am not sure about the gas prices since I burn calories, not gas. My perception is in Palo Alto that just a few weeks prior to the election 2 years ago gas prices were on a downward trend, then after the election the prices rebounded. In addition my recollection is this same scenario occurred 2 years prior to that presidential election during the 2002 mid-term election. (This was the subject of a family discussion already.)

Maybe Anonymous, instead of pointing out facts that do not pertain to the issues the person was interested in, could research price trends for gas in Palo Alto on a month to month bases for the last 6 years+. Then post them for all of us to read

As a secondary project Anonymous could do a search of articles pertaining to oil maintenance problems but that might be more arbitrary, and harder to prove.

The past may predict the future. Anonymous, please shed light on this gas price prediction.


Posted by Craig, a resident of Midtown
on Oct 10, 2006 at 5:51 pm

I seriously doubt that there's any real connection. Will it change YOUR vote? Anyone's? Will one more person vote Republican in Palo Alto because gas prices have dipped?
It seems like generally prices come down after labor day, and go up after memorial day, since they's the big "summer driving" season. So, it stands to reason that around election time, prices will dip.
How about less conspiracy mongering, and more issue mongering, like alternative fuels, alternative transportation (like burning calories by using your feet), foreign oil dependancy, etc?


Posted by sarlat, a resident of Crescent Park
on Oct 11, 2006 at 7:55 am

the saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.


Posted by anonymous, a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Oct 11, 2006 at 11:56 am

The Saudis, on a very good day, can produce 9 million barrels. On the typical day, the world consumes 81 million barrels. How could the producer of 11% of the oil control the price everyone else buys and sells at?


That's as absurd as saying saying JC Penney can control the prices charged by Wal-Mart and Target.


Don't tell me about OPEC. When one of its members doesn't like the price OPEC has set, it simply cheats and sells some or all of its production at whatever price it wants. OPEC hasn't been effective since the 1970s.


Posted by Anonymous, a resident of Fairmeadow
on Oct 11, 2006 at 10:35 pm

Bush doesn't need to coordinate the effort to reduce prices. His allies in the oil and gas industry know what to do. This year Goldman Sachs is helping out by reducing the weighting of gasoline in their financial indices. So all the funds that track those indices have to sell off.

Have you noticed that whenever oil executives are called before Congress the price of gas drops? When Congress investigated the annual Memorial Day price rise, it didn't happen.


Posted by Wolf, a resident of Palo Verde
on Oct 13, 2006 at 1:02 am

Historical gas prices can be found at Web Link

No, there was no dip before the 2004 elections. In fact, there was a dip after the elections. I realize that this is a clear proof that Bush had intended to manipulate the gas prices before the 2004 elections and he just got confused about the dates. I am sure that Jag and Bob Woodward can swear to it.


Posted by kiki, a resident of Green Acres
on Oct 17, 2006 at 1:24 am

I heard a good one today. Nancy Pelosi has been planning on being speaker of the house for a long time -- how long? One of the many investigations she has been planning when she takes over will be on "gasoline prices." She ran though the list of investigations the other day on CSPAN, apparently oblivious to the fact that gas prices have dropped. What is she going to investigate -- why they went down? LOL


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