Posted by look at house sales, a resident of the Palo Verde neighborhood, on Jan 10, 2012 at 2:19 pm

I hope the analysis includes looking at sales and even rentals of existing houses. I'll bet the bulk of homes in our area are sold by elderly to families w/pre-school age children fleeing school districts in other states and cities. This is not new housing or new births, just new residents paying a premium to rent or buy here for the schools.

My experience is anecdotal, having been a recent buyer from another community, but I hope the paid consultants have a way to factor this in, too.

Posted by School Board Watcher, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Jan 10, 2012 at 5:04 pm

Be careful at projections of demographers. In 1992 a demographer's report told the School District that they would have declining enrollment as far into the future as they could see. The School District paid thousands of dollars for that report which proved to be entirely wrong,and exactly the opposite happened!!!

On the other hand projecting that enrollment will increase by 4% to 13% may also be an over-expectation. The history of enrollment in Palo Alto shows that initially after WW11 it rose to over 15,000 then it sank to less than half, 7,500 by 1989; then it has steadily risen since then, but it could drop again - who knows. Demographers can make mistakes!!!