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Myth of Consensus Explodes: APS Opens Global Warming Debate

Original post made by Jane, Professorville, on Jul 18, 2008



The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming.
The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science.
The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible."

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."
Web Link

Comments (21)

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Posted by phil
a resident of College Terrace
on Jul 18, 2008 at 12:28 pm



The sky has stopped falling-- buy sky

"Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming.

"In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."


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Posted by Walter E. Wallis
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 18, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Hansen, time to cash in your shares of Gore, Inc.
If Orson Wells had scripted a radio show starring Global Warming instead of invading Martians, would anyone have believed it was real? Perhaps some day Palo Alto will celebrate this LibLudd Warmie idiocy the way Salem celebrates witches.


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Posted by Greg
a resident of Southgate
on Jul 18, 2008 at 1:26 pm

Walter,

The APS has not, as a whole, stated what was ...well...stated by one of its committees.

The global warming scare is great for nuclear energy, which is the only way avialable to us to get off foreign oil, in the next few decades. That is why Maggie Thatcher created global warming in the first place!

I, personally, don't buy the evidence about anthropogenic climate change, but is has been great for nuclear energy.

Do you always have to state the truth, Walter? Why not give it a rest for a while?


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Posted by Anonymous
a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jul 18, 2008 at 1:55 pm

This headline and discussion is a misrepresentation of the APS. The article discusses one forum of the APS, Forum on Physics and Society. Here's the link to that paper:

Web Link

And here is how the APS prefaced the article.


Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered


The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions.

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley


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Posted by Jesse
a resident of Ventura
on Jul 18, 2008 at 3:43 pm

Forget all this hair splitting about "scientific peer review" and other mambo jumbo. Monckton tells it the way we want to hear it.


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Posted by th
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Jul 18, 2008 at 3:48 pm



I do not believe that al gores sermon was peer reviewed, correct me if I am wrong-- with links and citations please


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Posted by a
a resident of Adobe-Meadows
on Jul 18, 2008 at 4:36 pm

"In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

This is fascinating because the Mayan calendar predicts a new sun in 2012, the same year the sun is to reach is apex. I knew about the solar system warming at the same time. I knew that Mars and the planets were getting warmer like Earth and that it was because of a hotter sun. The sun has been acting usual and believe that the sun has been causing much of the glacier ice melt and hurricanes.


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Posted by Walter E. Wallis
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 18, 2008 at 4:48 pm

Sorry to blast you into inarticulate, Greg, But when my team, the realists, has so few cheerleaders we have to make up in quality what we lack in quantity. No readers of this blog can say "Gee, how come no one ever told me this?"


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Recycle
a resident of Crescent Park
on Jul 19, 2008 at 12:03 am

For Walter, who is hard of hearing:

"And here is how the APS prefaced the article.

Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered

The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review. Its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions."


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Posted by OhlonePar
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Jul 19, 2008 at 12:34 am

The article in the original link has now appended a correction. The APS has not changed its position.

Peer-reviewed is everything in science--if you don't have it, it means no one's vouching for the quality of your research.


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Posted by Walter E. Wallis
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 19, 2008 at 3:14 am

The witch burners are out in force on this. I repeat my challenge - use Hansen's magic box as gospel and tell us how much difference it will make, according to that box, if we give the LibLudds everything they demand. That would be science. Anyone ever wonder what the civilizations of Egypt or the Mayans would have been had their efforts been directed toward useful rather than decorative structures?


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Posted by OhlonePar
a resident of Duveneck/St. Francis
on Jul 19, 2008 at 11:49 am

Walter,

Given that a lot of the proposed solutions to curbing carbon emissions depend on technological innovation, your luddite characterization is out in left field.

It's folks like yourself who strike me as antediluvian on the matter--you basically can't conceive of an alternative energy strucuture.

T. Boone Pickens is big on wind farms, I hear--let's put Tornado Alley to work.

Half of the fossil fuels used by American households go to heating and cooling the house. Let's make geothermal heat pumps the norm in building.

Just heard about some mechanicaal fixes to solar cells that would double their efficiency.

And how about finally getting some real public transit systems in this state. I would gladly swap my air miles for a high-speed rail line down to LA. (with stops in San Luis and Santa Barbara)

I'd gladly take BART to SF even if it made its way down to Redwood City. I hate driving there and I hate parking there.

I'd gladly take the light rail to San Jose if they extended it to Palo Alto--we're paying for it, we should have it.

Fact is, there are some pretty basic things we could do that would make us more fuel efficient as a country. We do almost none of them--but Luddites like you have a holy fit about the very idea that there should be any changes in the structure of the energy industry.

Bush and Cheney's ties to the oil industry have really held us back--they can't think outside the box.


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Posted by Walter E. Wallis
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 19, 2008 at 1:25 pm

My life has been dedicated to increasing the efficient use of energy, first generating it, then utilizing it. I have seen all the nostrums and heard all the magic box solutions, but none of it meets the smell test. And don't forget the rickshaw, a solution to unemployment and a great way to break "America's Love Affair With the Automobile."
T-Bone knows a deal when he sees it - a new field where the logical competition is being strangled by regulations and where you soak up beautiful government subsidies. Want some really good investment advice? Go into peakers - when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine you are solid gold.


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Rickshaw Rick
a resident of University South
on Jul 19, 2008 at 3:40 pm

And don't forget the rickshaw, a solution to unemployment and a great way to break "America's Love Affair With the Automobile."

This would definitely keep speeds down on 101 and 280


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Jane
a resident of Professorville
on Jul 19, 2008 at 5:04 pm



Here is a link to Moncktons paper Web Link



Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered


By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably caused more than half of the "global warming" of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid warming. However, global mean surface temperature has not risen since 1998 and may have fallen since late 2001. The present analysis suggests that the failure of the IPCC's models to predict this and many other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its evaluation of the three factors whose product is climate sensitivity:

1. Radiative forcing ΔF;
2. The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter κ; and
3. The feedback multiplier .

Some reasons why the IPCC's estimates may be excessive and unsafe are explained. More importantly, the conclusion is that, perhaps, there is no "climate crisis", and that currently-fashionable efforts by governments to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions are pointless, may be ill-conceived, and could even be harmful.


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Posted by missed the point
a resident of Barron Park
on Jul 19, 2008 at 7:16 pm

"The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions."

This makes the point of the thread initiator, that there is no consensus. No one argued that there is consensus that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are harmless; arguments against that hypothesis are nothing more than attempts to dismiss the evidence for the initial claim and derail the discussion.


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Posted by Greg
a resident of Southgate
on Jul 19, 2008 at 7:27 pm

Anthropogenic global wariming is CLEARLY important! Maggie Thatcher made it so, becasue she wanted to defeat the coal union in England. Who cares, really?

Global warming is GREAT for nuclear energy, which is what we all need.

If we could all just agree with the 'consensus' (true or not), we could finally get to where we need to be: Nuclear energy!

Can we all just get along? Let's just agree that global warming, caused by us, is real. Then we can start builing new nuclear plants.


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Posted by Rickshaw Rick
a resident of University South
on Jul 19, 2008 at 10:42 pm

missed the point, "there is no consensus. "

That's right, but the weight of evidence for human contribution to warming outweighs the evidence against it. You want to take exceptions to the rule and generalize them.


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Posted by cojones aren't just for men
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 20, 2008 at 6:14 am

OP: Please check out how much of pro-anthropogenic conclusions were ever "peer-reviewed" and "accepted" by all climatologists who read each one.

You have gotten the point. Peer-review, scmeer review, once politics entered the debatet there weren't any because to disagree meant loss of funds and jobs.

At last, people are figuring it out.

Hurray to APS for FINALLY growing some cojones and "allowing" scientific debate, as it should have been promoting for the last 20 years.


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Posted by Walter E. Wallis
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 20, 2008 at 6:52 am

Part of the blame has to rest on Carl Sagan and his lying for a good cause; in his case it was "Nuclear winter" [et al & Sagan] and a sham computer program. The only real scientific consensus is that Global Warming generates grants. Technically trained realists like me are busting their rice bowls. As Snoopy put it, "...that old supper dish."


 +   Like this comment
Posted by Cojones
a resident of Midtown
on Jul 20, 2008 at 9:09 am

Yes, Walter. I admired Sagan until I grew up..then I saw he was but a theatrical propogandist, not a scientist. I was bummed.


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