Post a New Topic
Democrats Doubt Obama Can Win
Original post made
by jr, Professorville,
on Apr 30, 2008
Nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) think Hillary Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain in November 10 percentage points higher than the 38 percent who think Barack Obama can win, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. This represents a significant shift from March, when Democrats said Obama was the candidate more likely to beat McCain....
The ongoing controversy over Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, appears to have damaged how Americans view Obama. His favorable rating is now 47 percent, down 7 percentage points since February when 54 percent had a positive view of him. As may be expected, his unfavorable rating went up from 33 percent to 42 percent today.Web Link
Like this comment
Posted by pam
a resident of Charleston Gardens
on May 15, 2008 at 2:54 pm
i got this from Web Link
here's the whole thing :))))))))))))) obywanabama is toast
"Let's examine the "will of the people" in selecting our 2008 Democratic nominee. Many party leaders and superdelegates have emphasized its importance.
First, it should be noted that the DNC's decision to strip Florida and Michigan of its delegates made no mention of disregarding the popular votes from these two battleground states. After all, how can you ignore 2.3 million citizens, including a record turnout in Florida, who insisted on casting ballots even though officials told them it was pointless? That would be un-American. (See more thoughts about Florida and Michigan below).
So...setting aside the matter of Florida and Michigan delegates --a matter to be reviewed by the RBC on May 31 -- let's take a look at the popular vote.
Following Hillary Clinton's historic 41-point win in West Virginia, in which she netted nearly 150,000 votes, the popular vote totals from Real Clear Politics (RCP) for the primaries are:
Total votes cast: 16,680,827
Clinton: 47.7% (HC leads by 29,471 votes)
Total votes cast, including estimates from the caucus states of IA, ME, WA, and NV: 17,014,911
Obama: 47.7% (BO leads by 80,751)
Notes on the Popular Vote:
1. As stated above, there is no authority for disregarding raw votes from Florida and Michigan. Any claim that they should be excluded from popular vote totals is especially problematic given Obama's opposition to re-votes in both states, and the fact that he ran TV ads in Florida in violation of the pledge. Also keep in mind that Obama voluntarily removed his name from the Michigan ballot, against the advice of some of his allies, for political gain in Iowa. As Obama now heads to Florida and Michigan, presumably to campaign for general-election votes for the Democrats, it's increasingly ludicrous to cling to the position that these 2.3 million votes shouldn't count towards selecting his party's nominee.
2. The RCP estimate of popular votes that includes caucus states is skewed towards Obama given the undemocratic nature of caucuses. There are now at least three examples -- Texas, Washington, and Nebraska -- where the candidates were virtually tied in primary elections but caucus results in the same states heavily favored Obama. Two new myDD stories provide excellent analyses about this dynamic, here and here.
3. A blogger also points out that Clinton has now won the popular vote in 195 US Congressional Districts, compared to 187 for Obama. Including Florida and Michigan, it would be 227 for Clinton and 195 for Obama.
A virtual tie:
By June 3rd, no matter how you slice it, this race will be a dead heat.
Clinton is likely to lead Obama (and McCain) among all votes cast in presidential primaries, even when including the skewed caucus results. Obama will maintain his pledged delegate lead, but it will be narrower than it is now, possibly within 100.
Of nearly 20 million votes cast and among 4,000 or so delegates, they will be separated by a fraction on both metrics.
How Superdelegates will decide:
Now, Obama and his supporters rightly point out time and again that delegates, not popular votes, determine who wins the nomination. True, but only if you get 2210 pledged delegates. Since neither Clinton nor Obama will reach that number -- it's the responsibility of the automatic (or "super") delegates to vote at the convention.
"You may disagree with the power and authority given to the superdelegates -- and the party could change its rules after this election -- but that's for the future. Currently there are no rules requiring the superdelegates to award the nomination to the leader of pledged delegates.
The purpose of the superdelegates is to ensure that the best general-election candidate, and best potential president, is nominated. Any factor may be considered, including the "will of the people" as reflected in the popular vote. In fact, to overturn the peoples' choice based on the results of a complex delegate apportionment system (itself in need of reform) could backfire in November."