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Stanford study: Early flu shots save lives, money
Many saved by October versus November shots, math model says

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Starting a vaccination campaign a few weeks earlier could save nearly 600 lives and more than $150 million in a city the size of New York, according to a study by the Stanford University School of Medicine.

Under mathematical models that tested many alternative assumptions, researchers concluded that vaccinating in October would save more lives and money than in November, and that vaccinating in November would save 1,468 lives and $302 million in New York City compared to no vaccination campaign at all.

"To put it simply, the most cost-saving and life-saving strategy is to vaccinate as many people as possible as soon as possible," said the study's first author, Dr. Nayer Khazeni, an instructor of medicine in pulmonary and critical care. She also is an associate at Stanford's Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research.

"The study makes a compelling case for the benefits of vaccinating sooner rather than later" relative to current concerns over the H1N1 flu virus, a Stanford press release said.

Meanwhile, the first doses of the H1N1 flu vaccine arrived in Santa Clara County Oct. 6.

The initial shipment of more than 14,000 doses of the vaccine in nasal form (FluMist) went to "a limited number of private and public medical providers in the county, as well as to the Public Health Department," the Santa Clara County Public Health Department announced.

Early supplies should go to healthy children between the ages of two years and 10 years, since they are at a high risk for illness from H1N1, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It is expected that there will be enough vaccine, in nasal or vaccination form, for everyone who wants it when larger shipments arrive in the coming weeks and months, the health department said.

Once larger shipments arrive, most people should be able to get vaccinated through their regular medical providers, the county said.

Seasonal flu vaccinations have been widely available over the past month through health providers as well as through outlets such as Safeway pharmacies, CVS and other drug stores.

The Palo Alto Medical Foundation has provided seasonal flu vaccination clinics for its patients over the past several weekends, but cancelled Oct. 17 sessions in its Los Altos and Dublin locations because of shipping delays.

The foundation said it has not yet scheduled vaccination clinics for H1N1 flu, but will follow the situation and post updates to its website when new information becomes available.




Comments

Posted by A Noun Ea Mus, a resident of the Professorville neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 8:28 am

I don't think getting the flu shots (either) poses any real risk. I always get whatever vaccinations are available.

I am not partisan in the issues raised by this link, just think it's an interesting perspective.

Web Link


Posted by Huh?, a resident of the Downtown North neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 9:09 am

I thought vaccines were already in Santa Clara County last week. So where are they?


Posted by Flu science, a resident of the Evergreen Park neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 10:52 am

That was a great article from the Atlantic Monthly - thanks! Real science seems to get forgotten pretty quickly in some public health/medical treatment recommendations.


Posted by T, from Duveneck/St Francis, a resident of the Duveneck/St. Francis neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 12:36 pm
T, from Duveneck/St Francis is a member (registered user) of Palo Alto Online

In answer to Huh?:

Two days ago, I was able to get a sesasonal flu shot at the Walgreens/Disco Rex pharmacy at 328 University Avenue. (Everywhere else I called that was supposed to be dispensing flu shots had long since run out.)

While I was there, I heard an employee tell someone on the telephone that the Walgreens on El Camino near Arastradero is their only location that is offering "that flu shot" right now. I inquired a few moments later and was told that the discussion was indeed about the H1N1 flu shot. So you may be able to get a shot there. However, since I am sharing information that may be obsolete by now, please check with the El Camino store before actually heading over there.


Posted by Joop, a resident of the University South neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 2:47 pm

[Post removed by Palo Alto Online staff.]


Posted by A Noun Ea Mus, a resident of the Professorville neighborhood, on Oct 14, 2009 at 9:42 pm

While I think that the effectiveness of the flu vaccines may be over-stated (per my link above) the supposed risk is outright laughable.

Also, as regards the assertions made in the link I posted above. I think they over state the level in which seniors immune system doesn't respond to a vaccine. Indeed they are adding adjuncts to boost the immune system now also. (picture an old west dinner with the triangle being dinged.."dinner's on" now "the bug is here, come make anti-bodies")

If 20,000 people/day get a flu vaccine (this season, next season, H1N1, etc.) statistically a certain number will have an MI, have the first symptoms appear of an auto-immune disease in the next couple weeks, etc. The sun also rises.


Posted by Flu science, a resident of the Evergreen Park neighborhood, on Oct 15, 2009 at 10:44 am

Isn't the point being lost that there are no controlled studies, no double-blind studies? Bad reasoning: it works because if it turned out it worked it would be awful to think we hadn't inoculated everyone.


Posted by Ed, a resident of Menlo Park, on Oct 15, 2009 at 11:33 pm

To "Flu science". There are countless controlled studies on flu vaccine. They've been studied for decades and type A viruses like this are well understood as are the vaccines. People don't seem to understand that at this point we are talking on the molecular level. The 2009 H1N1 is not magically different. Most people don't seem to know that the regular seasonal vaccine this year contains an H1N1 strain (just not the "Swine Flu" 2009 H1N1 -- it is the Type A Brisbane 2007 H1N1). All of these flu viruses are variations on a theme. Some are small variations -- some big. If the variation is big enough, then there is concern that if it is virulent, then you've got a bad situation because the general population may not have much immunity. Other than that -- they are still far more alike than they are different. The vaccine is simply the same old same old process we've been doing for decades with type A influenza. The only difference is the internet has brought together conspiracy theorists with people who are fearful and/or undereducated.


Posted by A Noun Ea Mus, a resident of the Professorville neighborhood, on Oct 16, 2009 at 4:07 pm

And that people who do get the flu vaccine---- selects people who are less likely to die of various causes. People who don't get the flu vaccine, due to lack of availability, ignorance, fear, etc., selects for people more likely to die of various other ailments.


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