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Uploaded: Thursday, September 17, 2009, 11:26 AM

Palo Alto school enrollment climbs 2 percent
Overall increase falls short of demographic projections

by Chris Kenrick
Palo Alto Online Staff

Posted by Resident, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 1:31 pm

Thanks for the breakdown of these numbers.

Unfortunately though there is still a great deal of information missing. Are the lower numbers at Addison and Duvenick due to empty seats at the higher grades? I am assuming that there were still kindergarted overflows to other schools. It may have been the case that some of these empty seats were due to enrolled kindergartners getting into private schools and not showing up and parents not wanting to disrupt a child who had already settled into a kindergarten class at the overflow site. Are the increases at Hays due to class size increases at kindergarten level? Or, for other reasons?

Ohlone is probably bigger because of MI, so those figures don't really help as those children would have been placed in other schools if MI didn't take them, in other words that is an increase in site not in the number of students wishing to attend their neighborhood school. Is Escondido's smaller number anything to do with SI?

So, what about schools like Palo Verde which has also been full at the lower grades and overflowing students? Are there still overflows here?

We are still increasing enrollment, particularly at the elementary ages. 2% doesn't sound a lot, but it is still an increase particularly when the school with the biggest increase is the one that normally gets the overflows.

Posted by Lois, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 1:33 pm

The 11th day enrollment figure show just how accurately our School District is able to predict enrollment. Year after year our Staff have been able to manage classroom space at the beginning of the school year with great accuracy.

These enrollment figures show that there will be enough classroom space without reopening Garland and that if additional classroom space is needed at the elementary level; the vacated wing of Greendell can be refurbished and possibly used in the future.

Posted by OhlonePar, a resident of the Duveneck/St. Francis neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 1:42 pm

Resident,

I can tell you that Duveneck has only three kindergarten classes this year--so, no, not just upper grades.

Meanwhile, Ohlone's been given a double dose this year--yes, another MI class, but they also sprinkled in an additional student in all the other classes--the equivalent of another class--so in two years, we've added 80 students and it's very noticeable. All events are over-capacity, pick-up and drop-off are nightmarish, parking's spilling over onto parallel streets.

An excellent example as to why implementing an extra choice program on a full campus was idiotic. I actually don't have an issue with an extra kid per class. I do have an issue with creating a mega-elementary out of laziness.

Posted by Lois, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 1:56 pm

Resident: I suggest you go by the School District office and pick up your own copy of the 11th day enrollment figures. The questions you are asking will all be set out in that very revealing document.

Posted by Erin, a resident of the Leland Manor/Garland Drive neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 2:12 pm

Glad the numbers are finally in and showing that there isn't a decline in enrollment growth in this city like everyone thought there would be.

Here's the next problem: if the demographers are so good with their projections and we're consistently coming in around the mid-range, where are we going to put the 300 extra kids expected by 2013?? Anyone??

Time to get that Garland lease back asap! The board shouldn't have been so quick to give up our much-needed space. We're not in the business to make money here, we're in the business to educate our children.

Posted by Small Shrinkage, a resident of the Duveneck/St. Francis neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 5:24 pm

Good points by OhlonePar and Resident regarding Duveneck. As stated above, Duveneck is a 4 strand school and they had to cut a kindergarten class due to the dramatic decrease at that age level. Even with a decrease in one class, they still had to get overflow students from Addison and elsewhere to fill the other three classes. Each kinder class has 22 students. So it would be interesting to see the raw numbers especially at the elementary school level to see where the growth was in the district and who is having to import students to keep the classrooms filled at capacity. It always cracks me up when the district will cancel a kindergarten class and keep the other three classes filled at capacity of 22 instead of having 4 classes at 16 students a piece. Heaven forfend, we have smaller class sizes.

Posted by Erin, a resident of the Leland Manor/Garland Drive neighborhood, on Sep 17, 2009 at 5:43 pm

I was told at kinder orientation at Walter Hays that they were taking almost all of the Addison overflows and were already over their 80 slots. That was before class sizes were increased. We have 21 in each of the four kinder classes at Hays.

All of the overflowed Palo Verde kids who were on the priority list got in before school started. That's not to say that a family moving in now will get in, but there was enough shifting over the summer that those families who were on the waiting list from way back in February were able to get into their neighborhood schools.

Posted by Gunn parent, a resident of the Ventura neighborhood, on Sep 18, 2009 at 3:35 pm

PAUSD 11th day data is posted on the PAUSD Board Agenda website.

Web Link

Page 11 shows transfers between elementary schools for last 5 years.

I was surprised by the decrease in Gunn (-9) and increase at Paly (+78)

Posted by Erin, a resident of the Leland Manor/Garland Drive neighborhood, on Sep 18, 2009 at 4:50 pm

Thanks for the link. I've been waiting for it to be posted. Good data. I especially like the chart comparing average class size at the elementary level. Not a good trend and a slippery slope we're heading towards unless they rethink their decision on Garland.

Posted by Curious, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Sep 18, 2009 at 10:07 pm

What do the projections show for the next 10 years in terms of new student growth? Are they coming into PAUSD from the bottom (i.e., kindergarten or 1st grade) or from the middle years?

Posted by Erin, a resident of the Leland Manor/Garland Drive neighborhood, on Sep 19, 2009 at 7:27 am

Curious- they can't project out 10 years. They can only goes as far out as 5 years because that's what they have birth data for and at least it's something to base a projection on for kindergarten enrollment five years into the future. Anything further out is purely just a guess because there are no data points.

If you go to the district website and look at the board meeting archives you'll find the Lapkoff and Gobalet presentation from January 2009 that shows the projections through the 2013-2014 school year. These are the most recent figures that I know of. 2012 is supposed to be a big jump for kinder enrollment. This year was supposed to be down from last. 2003 was a little bit of a jump in the birth rate in PA. But it's also noteworthy, and I think most people know this, that people move into this district with kids already of elementary school age. We had two families on our culdesac move in last year with kids ranging in age from 3-9 years old.