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Uploaded: Thursday, December 4, 2008, 10:54 AM
Climate change heralds wildfires, rising waters
Stanford panel cites local impacts of global warming
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by Chris Kenrick
Palo Alto Online Staff
Photo
 | If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate the San Francisco Bay will inundate 240 square miles of area lowlands, including East Palo Alto, San Francisco Airport and parts of Silicon Valley, by the end of the century.
Intense floods that historically occurred once a century will come once a decade and Northern California will experience more and larger wildfires, as it already has.
This scenario was painted by policy planners and scientists Wednesday at a Stanford panel titled "Climate Change Hits Home." The panel honored environmental journalist Anton Caputo, who won the 2008 Risser Prize for his series on local impacts of climate change for the San Antonio Express-News.
"We're going to have to build levees — a lot of them," Will Travis, Executive Director of the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, said. "They're going to have to be big and strong enough to hold back rising seas and storms and do it in an earthquake."
Travis displayed a map of the bay highlighting areas of projected inundation.
"We hope our maps will bring home the message that global warming isn't just a problem if you're a polar bear in Alaska," he said. "Even if we're effective at reducing greenhouse gases, it's still going to get warmer for at least 50 years and the water will continue to rise. We need a new plan for the bay that anticipates climate changes and helps us get ready to adapt.
"The cost will be huge, but the price of moving aggressively now is a fraction of what it will be if we do nothing."
Biologist Terry Root, senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment, reviewed biological data on climate change, including the shifting of the rock-dwelling pika population from altitudes of 7,800 feet to 9,500 feet, and the increasingly early annual appearance of the sandhill crane in Northern Michigan. Root was a lead author of the wildlife section of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Rising temperatures threaten habitats and could lead to the extinction of 20 to 30 percent of known species, Root said. "We truly are standing at the brink of a mass extinction event that's being caused by just one species," she said.
Philippe Cohen, Administrative Director of Stanford's 1,200-acre Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, said many of the 60 to 70 research projects conducted each year on the preserve concern how ecosystems are responding to climate change, particularly how elevated carbon-dioxide levels affect grasslands. This past spring was the driest spring on record for Jasper Ridge, he said.
Travis said that despite the dire scenario, he's optimistic that the Bay Area possesses the wealth and talent to lead the world in solving climate change, citing agreements under which California is providing green technology and equipment to China.
"Admittedly what we do here is a tiny fraction of what needs to be done on planet earth, but we can provide ideas and leadership for around the world," he said.
The climate change panel, open to the public, was sponsored by Stanford's Bill Lane Center for the Study of the North American West and the Knight Fellowship Program.Chris Kenrick can be e-mailed at christina_kenrick@yahoo.com.
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| Comments
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Posted by cmaci, a resident of Menlo Park, on Dec 4, 2008 at 11:03 am This story does not reconcile well with the plans to develop Cargill salt ponds in RWC, right next to the SF Bay.
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Posted by Neal, a resident of the Community Center neighborhood, on Dec 4, 2008 at 12:17 pm If this isn't a good argument for nuclear energy I don't know what is. How else can we produce massive amounts of needed electricity without producing greenhouse gases? We can't continue to burn natural gas and coal. Windmills and solar panels are nice, but won't keep up with demand, especially when our automobile fleet changes to battery power. The benefits of nuclear power far outweigh the risks of global warming.
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Posted by Relocation, a resident of the Green Acres neighborhood, on Dec 4, 2008 at 12:52 pm Yes, these things will happen as the polar ice caps melt. The GOOGLEPLEX will be under water and they'll either have to build 20' high levies or relocate.
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Posted by Parent, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood, on Dec 4, 2008 at 1:31 pm This story also does not reconcile well with the proposed placement of High Speed Rail through the Peninsula, just about a mile from 101 (wich butts up agains the bay in many spots). Investment of billions upon billions of dollars in the new Califonria wide infrastructure project that it seems will be the direct path of these rising bay impacts. But even worse, the high speed rail authority describes highly accelerated rates of dense housing that will crop up intentionally clustered around the high speed rail lines and stations, by design. Put forth as a desirable net effect of high speed rail - densification of growth.
Seems like an extremely imprudent plan - to intentionally densify growth and put this huge infrastructure investment in the exact place that's going to be inudated by rising bay. So, about the time they cut the yellow ribbon, they'll be scrambling around trying to figure out how to build all these huge levies to protect it. (I wonder how much they've put in the cost projections for Bay flooding protection of this electric rail line.)
Ironic.
I wonder if Quentin Kopp or Ron Diridon were at the presentation.
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Posted by Greg, a resident of the Southgate neighborhood, on Dec 4, 2008 at 2:12 pm Did anyone at this conference mention the dire need for nuclear power? If not, then these people cannot be taken seriously.
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Posted by Walter_E_Wallis, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Dec 5, 2008 at 12:04 am
Walter_E_Wallis is a member (registered user) of Palo Alto Online Hey, I thought Baylands restoration was a good thing.
When you cross a crocodile with an abalone you get a crockabalone.
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Posted by Paul, a resident of the Downtown North neighborhood, on Dec 5, 2008 at 1:57 pm "This story does not reconcile well with the plans to develop Cargill salt ponds in RWC, right next to the SF Bay."
Yup, and many others. I predict the Bay Area will need the mother of all bailouts.
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Posted by shopa, a resident of another community, on Dec 6, 2008 at 10:48 am I have invented a new way to fight wildfires.
Please see my website
www.electric-fluid-pipeline.com
Please ask the CA fire officials to take a serious look at my ideas.
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Posted by Walter_E_Wallis, a resident of the Midtown neighborhood, on Dec 7, 2008 at 1:38 am
Walter_E_Wallis is a member (registered user) of Palo Alto Online Looks like we have found our sustainability director, or possibly even our utility director. If he will appoint me Harbor Master he has my vote.
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